We listened to a Real Estate webinar recently – Brian Buffini’s Bold Predictions Mid-Year Update – which we found very interesting and thought we’d share some tidbits with you. Also on the webinar was the National Association of Realtors chief economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun.

One of the most asked questions we get from clients is regarding a potential Real Estate Bubble – “Is the market going to crash like it did in 2007-2008?”

The consensus from both Brian Buffini and Dr. Yun was no, there isn’t a Real Estate crash coming for several reasons which are listed below (keep in mind these are national stats).

• We have almost 4 times LESS inventory of houses for sale today vs 2007. 
• Buyers are putting larger down payments today (they have more equity in their home) vs 2007.
  • In 2007, 45% of 1st time buyers financed 100% of their home (Zero $ down) vs 17% of 1st time buyers today.
• Lending restrictions are tight – it’s much harder to qualify for a loan today than in 2007 leading to fewer foreclosures. 
• Fixed rate mortgages are very low – currently in the 3% range – vs adjustable rate mortgages in 2007.

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Both Brian Buffini and Dr. Yun believe that housing inventory will increase in the next 6 months or so, due to an increase in new home construction, people that have put off a move because of the COVID pandemic and now decide to sell and a small percentage of owners will need to sell because the foreclosure moratorium will expire.

Please give us a call if you'd like to discuss how this affects your real estate goals.

We decided to compare May 2019 to May 2021 to get a closer comparison against a more “typical” year
rather than comparing the data to 2020, that is skewed due to the issues surrounding the COVID pandemic.
​So, keep in mind that there is a two-year gap between these numbers.

MAY 2019 COMPARED TO May 2021
NEW LISTINGS are down 19%, with 4,902 vs 3,971 new homes on the market.
PENDING SALES are up 12.9%, with 3,292 vs 3,717 homes going under contract during the month. (Sellers who have accepted offers but have not closed yet).
CLOSED SALES are up 7.1%, with 2,969 vs 3,183 home closing escrow during the month.
 
AVERAGE SALES PRICE: 2019 vs 2021
$471,200 vs $582,200, or a 23.5% increase
 
MEDIAN SALES PRICE: 2019 vs 2021
$420,000 vs $515,000, or a 22.6% increase
 
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
At the end of May 2021, we have another RECORD low inventory at 0.7 months.  This means that if we don’t put any more homes on the market to sell, it would take us just 3 weeks to sell everything in Portland. By comparison May of 2019 inventory was 2.1.
 
We are in a lack of supply driven market. We have much more demand than houses for sale, plus very low interest rates. It is not uncommon to have multiple offers on homes for sale, so homes are often going for more than asking price.
 
It is a great time to be selling.  It is a little tougher to buy, but we have great strategies that have been successful in helping buyers get into homes they want.
 
If there is anything that we can do for you, please give us a shout!  We are here to help however we can. If you are looking to make a move, or you know someone who is, we would love the referral.
 
We hope everyone continues has a better 2021. 

Happy New Year from the McDowell Team! 

2021 has got to be better than 2020!  We have vaccines coming out and being distributed, and we're going to get through this!  Check out the video below to learn what the market is doing!

​As of the end of December, we have RECORD low inventory at 0.8 months.  This means that if we don’t put any more homes on the market to sell, it would take us just a little over 3 weeks to sell everything.
 
DECEMBER 2020 vs DECEMBER 2019
NEW LISTINGS are up 37%, with 1,740 vs 1,270 new homes on the market.
PENDING SALES are up 13%, with 2,003 vs 1,772 homes going under contract during the month.
CLOSED SALES are up 26%, with 2,789 vs 2,213 home closing escrow during the month.
 
YTD AVERAGE SALES PRICE: 2020 vs 2019
$494,000 Vs $459,000, or a 7.6% increase
 
YTD MEDIAN SALES PRICE: 2020 vs 2019
$440,000 Vs $410,000, or a 7.3% increase
 
AVERAGE SALE PRICE: DECEMBER 2008 vs DECEMBER 2019
$514,000 Vs $457,700, or a 12.3% increase
 
The market is moving very fast. Homes are selling very quickly and for more money. This is a GREAT TIME TO SELL, and the market needs more houses to sell. This is being driven by very low interest rates making it A VERY GOOD TIME FOR PEOPLE TO BUY as well! The problem is that the level of competition makes it harder to get into accepted deals.

We have great programs and systems that we work with that helps our clients get into houses! If there is anything that we can do for you, please don’t hesitate to give us a call! We are here to help however we can.

We hope everyone has a fantastic 2021!